Last week I noted Gold’s test of the resistances just over US$1200, now we’ve seen long held support come under pressure this week. This all stemmed from last Fridays much watched US employment numbers which exceeded estimates, driving up expectations that the Fed would move sooner rather than later to increase interest rates. The resulting speculative jump in US dollar saw Gold fall below long held support around US$1175, which in turn triggered protective Sell stops placed just below this key level, spiking prices to US$1162 lows. Gold had declined in four of the five sessions last week as US data gradually confirmed the Federal Reserve recent minutes, which said declining first quarter growth was due to temporary factors like the unseasonably harsh winter. The Fed removed all calendar references in its forward guidance and said that recent economic weakness might be “transitory” in nature. This means that bank is now entirely dependent on data so a rate increase could happen at any future meeting.
Meanwhile in Greece, the country delayed last Fridays 300-million-euro repayment to the IMF until the end of June, increasing the risk of a Greek exit from the bloc. Concern over this situation however has failed to propel interest in gold. With investor sentiment for gold so weak, gold prices may well continue lower but I feel this is leading to a better buying opportunity. And given developments in Greece and with the potential for corrections in other asset classes, it may not be too long before the markets start looking for a safe haven again.
As for Silver, this has dropped below the $16 mark for the first time since May 1 and has struggled to regain and hold this level. Currently we’re sitting just below that at US$15.968 per oz. Technical charts indicate that we’re sitting on an ascending support line, which originated in March of this year. Silver should be viewed as oversold and therefore valuable to a corrective bounce. I’m a buyer of Silver at these levels with a protective Stops at 16.87.
By Adam Van Sambeek, Treasury Manager